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Does Trump's nuclear testing raise the stakes - or are we already in an arms race?

October 30, 2025

President Trump announced via social media that the US would begin testing nuclear weapons immediately, citing other countries' testing programs, though the White House has not clarified whether this means testing actual weapons or delivery systems. Most nuclear policy experts interviewed expressed deep concern that such testing could trigger a domino effect among nuclear powers, particularly Russia and China, potentially accelerating what many believe is an emerging three-way nuclear arms race. The announcement comes amid heightened global nuclear tensions, including conflicts involving nuclear states and the impending expiration of the last US-Russia arms control treaty in early 2026.

Who is affected

  • The United States and its Department of War (Department of Defense)
  • Nuclear-armed states including Russia, China, and North Korea
  • The global community facing increased nuclear threat risks
  • Policy experts and organizations including Jamie Kwong at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Darya Dolzikova at RUSI, Daryl Kimball at Arms Control Association, Hans Kristensen at Federation of American Scientists, and Robert Peters at Heritage Foundation
  • Parties involved in ongoing conflicts where nuclear powers are involved: Ukraine, Russia, Pakistan, India, Israel, Iran, and nations on the Korean peninsula and Taiwan
  • Populations near potential nuclear test sites, particularly Nevada

What action is being taken

  • President Trump has instructed the Department of War to start testing nuclear weapons
  • The US is currently using computer simulations and other non-explosive means to test its nuclear weapons
  • Russia has recently tested new nuclear weapons delivery systems including missiles and underwater strike capabilities
  • The US is watching China's nuclear development with increasing concern

Why it matters

  • This matters because it could trigger a domino effect where other nuclear-armed states resume nuclear testing after decades of restraint, potentially accelerating an arms race among the US, Russia, and China. The world is already at heightened nuclear risk due to multiple conflicts involving nuclear powers, escalating rhetoric, and the impending expiration of the last US-Russia arms control treaty in February 2026. Nuclear warhead numbers are increasing for the first time since the Cold War, and experts warn that unconstrained competition among nuclear powers could significantly increase the risk of nuclear conflict. The announcement comes at what multiple experts describe as one of the most dangerous moments for nuclear proliferation in decades.

What's next

  • Nuclear test site locations will be determined later according to Trump's comments
  • Russia has stated through a Kremlin spokesman that "if someone departs from the moratorium, Russia will act accordingly"
  • Preparing the Nevada test site would take at least 36 months according to experts
  • The last US-Russia nuclear treaty limiting deployed arsenals is set to expire in February next year, with no explicit replacement negotiations mentioned

Read full article from source: BBC